New research from NYU Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Arabian Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences (Mubadala ACCESS) shows that unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea played a key role in intensifying the extreme rainfall experienced across the United Arab Emirates on April 16, 2024.
The study found that as a weather system moved across the region, it drew on increased atmospheric moisture associated with warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures, leading to stronger thunderstorms and heavier rainfall over parts of the UAE, including Dubai, Al Ain, and Abu Dhabi. While large-scale atmospheric dynamics were important in shaping the event, the research demonstrates that elevated sea surface temperatures enhanced moisture availability and strongly affected where and how much rain fell.
Using a combination of numerical modeling and satellite observations, the researchers showed that warmer sea surface temperatures increased atmospheric moisture in the days leading up to April 16, resulting in more intense convective storms over the Arabian Gulf region. Under cooler ocean conditions, the analysis indicates that a portion of the precipitation would likely have occurred farther north, over the Zagros Mountains, rather than over the UAE.
The study highlights the importance of ocean–atmosphere interactions in shaping weather in arid regions and contributes to ongoing efforts to refine climate and weather models. These insights can help inform future forecasting, risk assessment, and long-term planning as part of broader initiatives to enhance climate resilience in the UAE and the wider region.
The findings underscore the value of continued research into regional climate systems and the role of ocean conditions in influencing weather variability across the Arabian Gulf.
