Coronavirus Concern, turned into Action

A data analysis by an NYUAD mathematics professor of COVID infection rates in his hometown of Italy could help predict infection rates in other countries.

Coronavirus Concern, turned into Action

Francesco Paparella, associate professor of mathematics, is using the “tricks of his trade” to extrapolate data on coronavirus that could help predict various events such as when the epidemic may reach its peak and the most effective policies at curbing its spread.

As a researcher who studies mathematical models for geophysical fluids and Earth-systems processes, Paparella took his skills to analyze the data coming out of his home country of Italy and began to draw predictions. The work has led him to writing a blog on his findings.

“Initially I started looking at the data just as any concerned citizen would do. Obviously, being an applied mathematician, who also has worked on ecological problems (some of which are similar to epidemics, such as the management of insect pests) I was naturally inclined to use the trick of my trade,” said Paparella.

He said that using his research he can address questions surrounding the efficacy of lockdown measures and rate of replication. His work is being published open access on his blog.

The professor will use his work to look at data coming from other countries to identify similar or various patterns. He’ll use this data to support or disprove hypotheses on the spread of the disease, its duration and the most effective policies to contain it.